Hello, welcome back to the weekly Always Thinking Football blog, yes I know I’ve kept you waiting this week but here we are.

Whilst the Premier League has been a forgone conclusion for a number of weeks, with Liverpool’s title win (which we will look into further this week) and Ipswich confirmed as the last relegated side, the Championship remains as open as ever. To me, why it remains the most unpredictable league in the English pyramid. The tantalising proximity to the wealth and stardom of the Premier League to the fallen depths of League One. League One itself is also a highly competitive league, however we have seen the struggles of sides which fall to this level as they fail to haul themselves back to England’s second tier. Just look at Sunderland, Ipswich, Southampton, Leeds and Charlton as recent examples.

I must confess, as much as I follow the Championship, I am no expert on each individual side and the narratives in addition to storylines which have plagued their season, but one swift look at the table demonstrates the potentially huge ramifications of the final day.

The Title

Okay, maybe very silly of me to put out this article a day before Leeds meet Bristol City as we may have a very different scenario by then, however I am silly so here we are.

Let’s assume Leeds win this game given their strength and attacking brutality at Elland Road this season, this would see them climb level on points with Burnley going into the final day of the season. Leeds do have a much more significant goal difference.

Leeds face a trip to all but relegated Plymouth on the final day, whilst Burnley host play-off hopefuls Millwall on the final day. I’m sure both teams will be eager to claim the title however essentially both teams will be in the Premier League next season and this is the most critical thing for them.

Side note, is there not something satisfying about two teams finishing on 100 points? Maybe I’m just overzealous about these largely irrelevant details. Perhaps a sign of recent Premier League outfits being too strong for the competition? I’ll leave that for another article.

The Playoffs

Ahhh, the playoffs guaranteed carnage, tension and drama, how can you not love them? Easy to say that as a neutral I suppose.

The playoff picture going into the last week

So, lets state the obvious, Sheffield United and Sunderland can begin making their playoff plans, although the current form of both of these sides leaves a lot to be desired.

If Bristol City can pull off a sensational result at Elland Road, they will be guaranteed a space in the top 6 and can alleviate any final day anxieties. If they can’t however, my word do we have some final day drama in store. Of course, I’m a neutral so despite wishing all teams well, as much drama on the final day as possible is requested.

Let’s assume Bristol City lose to Leeds, we can be left with the circumstance of 5 sides fighting over two more places on the final day. Bristol City themselves will host Preston at home, the visitors having lost their last 4 on the spin which has completely extinguished their playoff ambitions. On paper, the Robins should secure their spot there if they fail to do so against Leeds, but pressure can do funny things…

Next up are Frank Lampard’s Coventry, and yes, it is compulsory to give them their full name. Two defeats on the spin has left them in a precarious position, clinging onto the last position in the playoffs. Their fixture against Middlesbrough presents a mouthwatering final day clash with both sides jousting for their spot. The visitors must win on the final day and hope that other results go their way. If results were to really go their way, they could finish as high as 5th with their superior goal difference to Bristol City, but it is worth noting their away form has been far from consistent this season. What makes this game thrilling however is that a point will not be enough to guarantee Coventry a playoff position and thus both sides will need to be expansive in playing for the win.

But what about the other two sandwiched in between, Millwall and Blackburn. Millwall are on the brink of completing another impressive season with a minimal transfer expenditure, however they do face the daunting task of a trip to Burnley on the final day, who as mentioned, could be in the midst of their own fight to secure the title. Only Stoke, Luton and Hull have scored fewer than Millwall in the league this season as they prepare to face the toughest defence in the country. Lets just say the odds are not stacked in their favour.

Blackburn, over to you. Rovers have made a late recovery this season following a poor run and also find themselves in with a shout of a playoff place. They’ll be coming up against a Sheffield United side who are already confirmed to finish third and have lost 3 of their last 5, will this be an opportune time to make a statement at Brammal Lane.

It goes without saying, if Bristol City and Coventry win on the final day, they’ll secure 5th and 6th place. If Bristol City were to lose and Middlesbrough and Millwall to win, they would miss out. If Coventry and Middlesbrough draw and Blackburn and Millwall win, they will both miss out. If Coventry win 1-0 and Millwall win 6-0, Millwall will take their place, but as much as the EFL is unpredictable, this one may be a tad far fetched. I guess I’m trying to say this is one to keep an eye on as we enter the final day.

Relegation

Maybe if I wrote this a couple of weeks ago, I’d require a novel to describe the number of relegation scenarios, it was that compact. Things have opened up a bit more following this weekend’s results with Cardiff relegated and Plymouth all but confirmed. It has been a valiant effort from the majority of the sides flirting with the drop as they are actually in better form than those at the top of the table.

As I said, Cardiff are unfortunately gone and barring a ridiculously unprecedented goal swing, so too are Plymouth, perhaps Goal Difference proving to be very important! (Tragic link to a piece I wrote on the importance of Goal Difference).

But for Hull, Luton, Preston, Derby and Stoke, trepidation will be creeping in.

The most obvious place to start is with Hull, if they fail to collect a point at Portsmouth they will be relegated and the rest of these paragraphs are ultimately irrelevant. That being said, given their superior goal difference, a solitary point could lift them as high as 20th if other results do go in their favour.

Luton have pulled together three wins on the bounce to give them an excellent chance to stay in the division. They face a trip to an out of form West Brom side knowing a point will mean that Hull need to win against Portsmouth.

Here’s the twist, Luton and Hull draw, Preston will still be nervously looking over their shoulders. We’ve already touched upon the monumental task they will have at Bristol City.

Derby and Stoke could also be in trouble, especially given that they face each other in a game which is simply win for your own safety. There is an amazing instance where both could be relegated if Hull, Luton and Preston all win and they draw. Albeit it, to put Derby and Stoke in real jeopardy would be very reliant on several other results going against them.

In summary, it should be a thrilling day of Championship twists and turns, I’m not sure about you but I’ll be firmly seated on my sofa from 12:30 on Saturday ready to watch it all unfold.

I’m no expert and you didn’t ask, but for what it’s worth, here’s what I can see happening:

Title
Leeds and Burnley both win their remaining games meaning Leeds will win the title on goal difference
Playoffs
With Millwall being defeated at Burnley (according to my prediction) I think this essentially secures a place for Bristol City. I can however see a scenario whereby Coventry and Middlesbrough draw and Blackburn force a victory seeing them take 6th place.
Relegation
I fear for Preston. Bristol City will need the points and be fully focused at home to them and I just have a sense that Luton’s recent revival will see them take something from West Brom. In addition, Hull may be able to capitalise against a Pompey side with very little on the line.

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