Who Will Win The Champions League?
After some more vintage Champions League action this week, we’re down to four… Arsenal, PSG, Inter and Barcelona will be the semi finalists of this years competition.
It is the most open the competition has felt in some time, with all four teams having vast credentials which may make them worthy favourites. The Opta supercomputer, wherever that may be, has determined Arsenal as favourites following their triumph against Real Madrid. They have given them a probability of 28.7% but only a few percentiles separate the four sides. I know people’s tolerance for Opta percentages is relatively limited so will not dwell on them too much, but I think it shows the close proximity in the sides.
Could it come down to experience? Well, we know at least one team who has never won the competition will appear in the competition, with either PSG or Arsenal set to be heading to Munich. Is now the time for one of these sides to finally get across the line? Or will it be the Spanish giants Barcelona, with players such as Lewandowski who knows what it takes to win the competition. Even writing that sentence I realise how silly it is, Arsenal have Havertz and Jorginho, Inter have world cup winners. Will leave it in so you can see how some of my articles are just my rambling football thoughts…
One thing that is for sure however is that the exit of Bayern Munich further opens up the playing field for me, as this means that they will not have the home advantage in the final, although that does not always count for much, see 2012 for that evidence.
If I try and look at a strength and weakness of each team, it still doesn’t get me any closer to a clear prediction:
Arsenal
Strength:
Extremely disciplined defensively and incredible work ethic and desire to defend, very hard for teams to break down on a regular basis and concede very little XG against. They may have enough to nullify the greatest of attacks and have already faced two of the final 4 limiting them to very scare opportunities
Weakness:
Struggle to create chances on a regular basis, particularly against a mid block, this is a large factor as to why Arsenal have drawn 12 Premier League games this season.
PSG
Strength:
Very rapid, fluid attacking football. Hard to content with at the best of times with the constant overlapping runs of Hakimi and Nuno Mendes. Their second goal against Aston Villa on Tuesday was a great example of this.
Weakness:
High line and expansive football can leave them very susceptible to the counter attacks. Whilst PSG undoubtably have immense quality on the ball, they still can be vulnerable in the defensive transition, as Villa showed on Tuesday but more notably Harvey Elliot’s goal in the round of 16.
Barcelona
Strength:
Similar to PSG, their attacking quality is immense with Lamine Yamal and Raphina contributing goals and assists from either flank, once they are in full flow, they are a hard team to stop. They average 2.7 goals a game in the league and have already blown teams such as Bayern Munich and Dortmund away this season.
Weakness:
Maybe it’s because I haven’t seen as much as Barca as I have in previous seasons, but to me there still seems to be a softness at the back, a lack of a leading CB. Liverpool have Van Dijk, Arsenal have Saliba, PSG have Marquinhos, I’m not sure Barca have this leader at the back (I could be wrong and you’re welcome to let me know in the comments!) We have seen them leak goals to Benfica, let’s not forget Dortmund had the ball in the net 5 times on Tuesday night, albeit a couple ruled out for marginal offsides.
Inter
Strength:
Experience. I don’t just mean that they are a slightly older side, Inter are incredibly experienced and well drilled under Inzaghi by this point that they have become the masters of the low block and controlling a game without the ball. They then posses real pace and explosiveness on the counter attack with Di Marco and Dumfries on the outside and Thuram and Martinez through the middle. Let’s also not forget this largely same group of players made the final a couple of seasons ago.
Weakness:
For me, they can be slightly too passive in games that I have seen this season. This is great when you have the defensive record that they do, but will they be punished for it at some point? Bayern spurned a plethora of chances across the two legs which could have swung the result the other way, equally when Arsenal visited the San Siro earlier in the season they controlled large spells of the game.
So, there’s my very vague summary, but what do I think.
Well… I think that Arsenal will have just enough to get past PSG over the two legs, although I think this will be much closer than the Real Madrid tie. We’ve seen already this season how Arsenal can contain PSG’s shape, but I appreciate this is a different PSG proposition by this point.
Equally, speaking of containing, I think Inter will be able to hold off Barcelona across two legs, especially if they can score first. They have the ability to restrict space in wide areas and reduce the threats of the Barcelona wingers. Meanwhile, I think Barcelona will be vulnerable to their sweeping counter attacks.
So, an Inter vs Arsenal Final potentially in Munich. It could the the battle of the best low-mid blocks in Europe and in which case, not a spectacle for the neutrals. My heart obviously wants me to say Arsenal, but I think their inefficiency against low blocks has been exploited enough times this season and already by Inter.
I think it’s Inter’s title this year, but for anyone who has seen our predictions, expect the exact opposite to happen!